Gridiron Victoria Finals Math all teams alive!

Following a series of unexpected and upset results in Gridiron Victoria Week 10 play, a brief look at the standings show that more than two thirds of the way through the season, ALL SEVEN teams can still mathematically make the finals, and no one is yet guaranteed of playing finals. Yep, with all teams still having 3 or 4 games left to play in the regular season, there is no picture at all of how the finals will be, let alone a clear one.

So where is everyone positioned, and what do they need to do to play off for the Vic Bowl? First, let’s have a quick look at the all-important tie-breaker. Should two teams end up on the same number of points for the season, the tie-breaker scenario is as follows:

1. Fewest forfeits
2. Best head-to-head results between tied teams
3. Best net points differential between tied teams

The list goes on and is eventually resolved by the toss of a coin. I don’t see number 1 coming into play, and I can’t imagine it going past number three. Below is the current head to heads, with the shaded squares finalised (teams have played each other twice) and the unfilled square still to play each other again before the final head to head is determined:

Monash Warriors: Played 8, Points 14

Sitting atop the ladder and with a game in hand over their two nearest rivals, the Warriors appear as though they will sew up the top spot. Two wins from their remaining four matches will ensure that the Warriors lock up the top spot for the finals, with the head to head tie break over the Rangers and no one else in the competition able to make competition points for the year.

To guarantee finals: In this case, it is easier to look at what could possibly stop the Warriors from playing finals; lose all four of their remaining matches (Miners, Crusaders, Buccaneers & Predators) and must relinquish the head to head tie break with the Miners. As long as they stay within 56 points of the Miners this Saturday, the Warriors will once again return to the GV finals. Furthermore, should the Warriors win this weekend, they will actually do enough to ensure not only their participation in the 2015 GV Finals, but also the Croydon Rangers (see below).

Croydon Rangers: Played 9, Points 12

With their loss on the weekend, the Rangers cannot regain the head to head tie break over the Warriors, effectively creating a two game gap. The only way the Rangers could climb to the top spot would be to win out for their remaining three matches (Predators, Miners, Crusaders) and then rely on the Warriors to win only 1 of their remaining four matches. If the Warriors were to fall in all four remaining matches, the Rangers could make do with winning on 2 of their 3 remaining matches, but would also have to rely on results with the Crusaders (who currently hold the tie break over the Rangers) to lose a match on the way home.

To guarantee finals:

1. Two more wins from their remaining three matches, or
2. The Miners lose any of their remaining four matches, or
3. Should the Miners win out the rest of the season, the Rangers would need just one more win, and to get within 10 points of the Miners to ensure that they retain the tie-break.

Geelong Buccaneers: Played 9, Points 10

The Bucs saw their chances of securing a top two finish diminish over the weekend with their loss to the Miners. Sitting a game out of second place, and also trailing the Rangers on the head to head tie break, the Bucs would need a two game swing over the Ranger with three matches left (Royals, Warriors, Cru) to leap frog the Rangers. To climb ahead of the Warriors (with whom they currently have the tie-break) the Bucs would need to win all three matches and hope the Warriors win only one of their remaining four, or if the Warriors were to drop all four matches, two more wins from the Bucs would see them ahead of the Warriors.

To guarantee finals:

1. Win all three remaining matches and finish on 16 points would guarantee at least 3^rd spot in the finals, and avoid a semi-final against the top placed finisher.
2. Two more wins will be enough to secure a finals spot, with the Bucs holding the tie-break with the Miners despite the loss on the weekend or
3. One more win, with any Miners loss in their last four matches will be enough to scrape into the finals for the Bucs (with the tie-breaker over the Miners & the Predators).
4. If the Bucs were to lose their remaining three matches, anything less than two wins for the Miners and any loss (or tie) for the Predators in their remaining three matches will secure a finals spot for the Bucs. Note, the Miners and Predators face off in Week 13, in which one of the teams will suffer a loss, or both teams a tie.

Western Crusaders: Played 8, Points 8

The Cru likely watched on this week in bewilderment at the results, and will have mixed feelings about their impact. The victory to the Miners keeps them in the finals picture and means the Crusaders are less secure in the last finals spot, but the losses by both the Bucs (3^rd) and Rangers (2^nd) keeps a top 2 finish firmly within the Cru’s reach, especially with matches still to play against both these teams.

To guarantee finals:

1. Winning all four remaining matches (Royals, Warriors, Rangers, Bucs) will guarantee the Cru finish top 2, ahead of the Bucs on points, and ahead of the Rangers with the tie break.
2. Three wins will be enough to ensure a finals spot, with the Cru holding the season tie break over the Miners.
3. Two wins will take the Crusaders to 12 points, which will be enough to secure a finals spot if:
   1. The Rangers do not win again this year (Cru will hold the tie-break) or
   2. The Bucs do not win again this year (Cru will be ahead on points) or
   3. The Miners lose one match (will be tied on points but Cru hold the tie-break) or
   4. The Miners lose two or more matches
4. One win puts the Cru on 10 points, which will be enough to secure a finals spot if:
   1. The Bucs do not win again this year, and the Cru win by 31+ points in their Week 14 match to take the head to head tie-break or
   2. The Predators lose any of their three remaining matches as the Cru hold the tie-break or
   3. The Miners win less than three of their final four matches for the season
      1. Note that the Predators and Miners face off in Week 13
   4. If the Cru were to lose their four remaining matches, and finish on 8 points, as they hold the season tie break over both the teams below them, they would still make the finals if:
      1. The Predators manage only 1 win from their remaining three matches and
      2. The Miners manage only 1 win from their remaining four matches and
      3. The Royals lose any of their remaining three matches and
      4. Should the Royals win out, the Crusaders stay within 29 points of the Royals this Saturday to retain the tie-break.

South Eastern Predators: Played 9, Points 6

The ineligible player penalty that the Predators received in Week 1 looked for a long time like it could play a large part in the finals picture for this club in 2015, but the loss to the resurgent Royals on the weekend will likely have a bigger impact. Left stranded on 6 points, and with only three matches remaining, the Predators need a lot of things to go right to be playing finals in 2015, and a minimum of 2 wins from their remaining three matches to have any chance. Winning all remaining matches (Rangers, Miners, Warriors) still isn’t enough to guarantee the Predators a finals spot, with other results still needing to go their way.

To make the finals:

1. Winning all remaining matches puts the Predators on 12 points, snuffing any threat from the Miners with the head to head tie break. They will still need the following to happen to make the finals:
   1. Crusaders secure only 2 points from their remaining four matches, or
   2. Bucs not to win again for the year, or
   3. The Rangers to not win again for the year, and the Predators defeat the Rangers 11 or more points this Saturday to secure the tie-break.
2. Should the Predators win only two matches, and finish on 10 points, they could make the finals if the following occurred:
   1. The Crusader lose all four remaining matches and
   2. The Miners win no more than two of their remaining matches, and if one of them is over the Predators, the margin is less than 14 points.

Berwick Miners: Played 8, Points 6

Despite sitting in 6^th position, the Miners still have a legitimate shot of making finals, with four games remaining (Warriors, Rangers, Predators, Royals), with the potential of reaching 14 points. Should the Miners get up this weekend, they will have the belief they can run the table and squeeze into the 2015 GV Finals.

To make the finals:

1. Winning all remaining games will earn the Miners 14 points, which will be enough to play finals if:
   1. They Warriors lose their remaining four matches and the Miners win by 57+ points this weekend to secure the tie-break, or
   2. The Miners beat the Rangers by more than 11 points in Week 12 to take the tie-breaker and the Rangers win only 1 of their 2 other matches for the season, or
   3. The Bucs drop two of their final three matches, or
   4. The Cru drop two of their final four matches
2. Should the Miners win three of their remaining matches, the Miners will end on 12 points and will make the finals if:
   1. One of the wins is over the Rangers (Week 12) by more than 11 points, and the Rangers drop all of their remaining three matches, or
   2. The Bucs drop all three of their remaining matches, or
   3. The Cru win only one of their remaining four matches
      1. Note that the Cru are still to play the Bucs and the Rangers again, so assuming draws do not take place, at least one of these three options will be removed when these matches take place.

and

1. The Predators lose one of their last three matches, one of which is against the Miners

3. If the Miners were to win only two of their remaining matches, they would finish on 10 points and would make the finals if:
   1. The Crusaders lose all of their remaining four matches, and
   2. The Miners beat the Predators by more than 14 points and secure the tie-break,

or

1. The Crusaders lose all of their remaining four matches, and
2. The Miners beat the Predators by less than 14, and
3. the Predators win only 1 of their other two remaining matches.

or

1. The Crusaders lose all of their remaining four matches, and
2. The Miners or lose to the Predators, but the Predators lose their other two remaining matches.

Melbourne Uni Royals: Played 9, Points 2

The Royals managed their first win this weekend, and with it took the tie-break with the Predators. As unlikely as it sounds, they could still make the finals, but EVERYTHING would have to go their way.

To make the finals:

1. The Royals must win all of their remaining games, including a win over the Crusaders by more than 30 points to secure the tie break, and
2. The Crusaders lose all of their remaining matches, and
3. The Royals defeat the Miners by at least 21 points to secure the tie-break, and
4. The Miners win no more than one of their three other remaining matches, and
5. The Predators win no more than one more match for the season

Should the Royals win against the Miners, but not secure the tie break, then items 1 & 2 still apply, and

4. The Miners win none of their remaining matches, and
5. The Predators only win for the rest of the season will be against the Miners.

It is more than likely that by this time next week, we will have at least one team relegated to a post season off the field, or locked in for finals, but it is exciting to know that as of this week, everyone in GV Division 1 still has everything to play for.