The Melbourne University Royals knew what they had to do last week to keep their finals hopes alive, and despite knocking off the Crusaders in the early game at Footscray, they didn’t do enough to secure the tie-break, and with the final whistle, so ended their chances of a finals appearance in GV senior season 2015. That was just one of the finals stories that became clearer following a cold weekend of GV division 1 football.
The Warriors win over the Miners was enough to secure their spot in the finals, and just about sew up top spot on the table, and also ensured that the Rangers will play finals football in 2015. The tie-break schedule is updated below, as are the requirements for teams to make finals.
Monash Warriors: Played 9, Points 16 – Guaranteed Finals
One more win will guarantee top spot for the Warriors, with three games still remaining. In the event the Warriors were to lose all three of their remaining matches (Cru, Bucs, Preds) they could only fall as far as third, if the Rangers and Buccaneers were to win all of their remaining matches (2 & 3 games respectively).
Croydon Rangers: Played 10, Points 14 – Guaranteed Finals
With their win on the weekend, the Rangers dealt a blow to the Predators chances of playing finals, and helped by the Warriors win over the Miners, guaranteed a trip back to the finals in 2015. The Ranger can finish in top spot only if they win their remaining two matches, (Miners & Cru) and the Warriors lose all three of their remaining fixtures.
One more win would be enough for the Rangers to secure 2nd spot on the table. In the event the Rangers were to lose their remaining two matches, the furthest they can slip to is 3rd place on the table, and only if either the Buccaneers or Crusaders win all of their remaining matches (note that the Bucs and Cru are still to play each other a second time, so both teams cannot possibly win out).
Geelong Buccaneers: Played 9, Points 10
No game over the weekend for the Buccaneers, but the losses to the Miners, Predators and Crusaders helped sure up a finals spot. While not yet a guaranteed finals starter, the Buccaneers have one hand on the 3rd place already.
To guarantee finals:
It is simple; win any one of their remaining 3 matches (Royals, Warriors, Cru) for a guaranteed trip to the finals. The Buccaneers can still finish as high as first, should they win out, and neither the Rangers nor Warriors win again this regular season.
Should the Buccaneers not win again in the regular season, they will still make the finals if either of the following scenarios takes place:
- The Miners lose any of their remaining 3 matches
- The Crusaders’ only win in their last three regular season matches is against the Buccaneers, and by less than 30 points.
Western Crusaders: Played 9, Points 8
With the toughest schedule in the run home according to current ladder position (Warriors, Rangers, Bucs), may very well rue their loss to the Royals on the weekend as the match that keeps them out of the 2015 GV senior finals. On the other hand, winning their last 3 matches could see the Crusaders climb as high as second place on the table and running into finals with enough confidence to frighten any team; the finals destiny is still in their hands.
To make finals:
Two wins from their remaining three matches is enough to guarantee finals for the Crusaders.
The Crusaders could also make the finals in the following scenarios:
With one win from the remaining three matches, the Crusaders would make the finals if:
- The win was over the Buccaneers by 31+ points and the Buccaneers do not win any of their three remaining matches. OR
- The Miners drop one of their three remaining matches.
Should the Crusaders not win again in the regular season, they could still make the finals if:
- The Predators lose either of their three remaining matches as the Crusaders hold the tie-break OR
- The Miners win less than two of their final three matches for the season
a. Note that the Predators and Miners face off in Week 13
South Eastern Predators: Played 10, Points 6
The Predators have slipped to the “highly unlikely” status for finals in 2015 after the weekends loss to the Rangers. The best they can possibly finish is 4th, and would need everything to go right.
To make the finals:
The Predators must win their remaining two matches (Miners, Warriors – technically they could still scrape into the finals with a draw against the Warriors) and the Crusaders would have to lose all three of their remaining matches.
Berwick Miners: Played 9, Points 6
The Miners reportedly played well over the weekend, despite being shut out by the Warriors. With three matches remaining (Rangers, Preds, Royals), the Miners can no longer afford to play well and lose any more; honourable losses do not end up in the Win column. Anything less than 2 wins from their remaining three matches will see the Miners watching the 2015 GV senior finals from the sideline.
To make the finals:
1. Winning all remaining games will earn the Miners 12 points, which will be enough to play finals if:
a. The Buccaneers go winless in their remaining three matches for the season,
or
b. The Crusaders win only one of their remaining 3 matches for the season.
i. Should both a & b happen (Cru’s only win for their remaining matches being over the Bucs), the Miners would take third place on the table and secure what would almost certainly be a semi-final against the Rangers.
2. Winning only two of their remaining matches will be enough to get in if:
a. The Crusaders go winless in their last three matches,
and
b. The Predators lose at least one of their remaining two matches (one of which is against the Miners).
Melbourne Uni Royals: Played 10, Points 4 – No Finals in 2015
Despite winning on the weekend, the Royals were unable to secure the margin to take the season tie-break with the Crusaders, and while they can mathematically finish the season on enough points to qualify for fourth place (depending on other results) the head to head tie break will keep them out of finals in 2015. Their recent form however suggests the Royals will still play a serious part in determining the final make-up of the 2015 GV standings.
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